ntang (ntang) wrote,

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On the EC and mathematical projections...

To all of my Republican friends who've been gloating over the way the Electoral College projections looked a week or two ago, check them today, will you?

The current split is Kerry 280, Bush 239. And what's the projection for November 2nd? Kerry 538, Bush 0, with every state being a "Strong Kerry" state.

While that's the way it should come out, even I'm not that optimistic. It's going to be a close race in the actual numbers - even if the EC does end up being way off, I suspect the actual breakdown of votes per state will be awfully close. Anyways, the projections are likely because Kerry has recently taking a big jump in the polls, which happen to come coincidentally after the post-debate polls have arrived. Yep, looks like Bush won that one, alright. I hope Bush wins the election the same way he won that debate.

Anyways, the end result is that the EC projections are pretty worthless now, as this competition has been constantly sliding back and forth between the two candidates, and I don't see how anyone can accurately predict how it'll turn out. There are around 100 EC votes that could be decided by the matter of a few hundred voters! That's amazing, and makes the entire thing too volatile to predict at this point.

But it's still fun to see a map that's all blue. ;)

(And as a side note: there's a reasonable chance there was a technical glitch in the projections of 538-0 because I just don't see how it could be projected out like that - he's supposed to factor in more than just a few days in the projections, and if so, it should be more Kerry-friendly but not that Kerry-friendly. If so, that's yet another reason to distrust the projected final map.)

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